DEMOGRAPHY is in the news, thanks to the Lok Sabha elections and the latest projections of population growth. The former has brought focus to aspects like the size of the electorate, number of first-time voters, and the proportion of women voters; the latter to the likely changes in the dependency ratio. There are a whole host of related issues, some of which have been discussed in past editions of this column.
Breaking news comes from a recent study, published in Lancet in March, which indicates a far more rapid decline in India’s total fertility rate (TFR) — going down to 1.29 by 2050 — than was assumed in previous studies and projections. Keep in mind that a TFR below 2.1 indicates a prospective decrease in the total population, and India’s is already 1.91 (2021). Despite the new figures, we will continue to be the most populous country for many decades yet, due to China’s precipitous and much earlier decline in TFR (which, at 1.14 will be lower than India’s in 2050 too). The UN had earlier predicted a peak population — of 1.7 billion — for India in 2065. Now, it is almost certain that we will reach our peak population much earlier and at a lower level.
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