A previous article (‘Demographic Dangers’, Civil Society, June 2024) discussed some implications of the latest fertility figures for India and the demographic projections that result. For the next two decades, with fewer births than earlier expected, the dependency ratio (the proportion of non-working age compared to working age population) will be lower, potentially amplifying the demographic dividend.
After that, though, the trend will begin to reverse — and alarmingly fast — as fewer births mean, in due course, a lower working age population. As the present bulge in working age population ages, the rapid growth in elder population will be bigger than the decrease in births. This will be compounded by increased longevity, resulting in more elders and, ultimately, a greater dependency ratio.
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